Multivariate Control Charts Based on Bayesian State Space Models

This paper develops a new multivariate control charting method for vector autocorrelated and serially correlated processes. The main idea is to propose a Bayesian multivariate local level model, which is a generalization of the Shewhart-Deming model for autocorrelated processes, in order to provide the predictive error distribution of the process and then to apply a univariate modified EWMA control chart to the logarithm of the Bayes’ factors of the predictive error density versus the target error density. The resulting chart is proposed as capable to deal with both the non-normality and the autocorrelation structure of the log Bayes’ factors. The new control charting scheme is general in application and it has the advantage to control simultaneously not only the process mean vector and the dispersion covariance matrix, but also the entire target distribution of the process. Two examples of London metal exchange data and of production time series data illustrate the capabilities of the new control chart. Some key words: time series, SPC, multivariate control chart, state space model, EWMA.